Recently, Apple’s stock price has maintained a strong upward channel, and it has almost been hitting new highs. Both the stock price and the market value have repeatedly hit new highs. And now the epidemic has not ended globally, and some of Apple’s stores are not open for business, but this does not prevent the capital market from chasing Apple’s stock. What is the reason why Apple is so sought after? Is it just because Apple is releasing a 5G version of the iPhone this year? Perhaps not entirely. We have noticed that the US government has spared no effort to suppress Huawei. To some extent, Apple is the biggest beneficiary.

Apple’s market value has repeatedly hit new highs, and the impact of the epidemic has dissipated. In fact, the biggest root cause is…

Apple’s market value has repeatedly hit new highs, and the impact of the epidemic has dissipated. In fact, the biggest root cause is…

At the last moment, TSMC had to bow?

As we all know, most of Huawei’s wafers are manufactured by TSMC, but now the long-arm jurisdiction of the United States is becoming more and more serious, and TSMC is clearly required to no longer do chip foundry for Huawei. Initially, the U.S. Department of Commerce required that Huawei be prohibited from using 25% of the U.S. technical standard. As a result, TSMC’s technology was not sufficient to meet the prohibition standard, so TSMC continued to supply Huawei; then the U.S. revised the technical standard to 10%, but TSMC did not. Only 7% can continue to do business with Huawei. In the end, the ruthless Americans had to change that as long as they use American hardware and technology, they must obey the US ban and stop cooperating with Huawei. Under the weight of the United States, TSMC is also in an awkward position.

It is reported that under the strong pressure of the United States, TSMC has to make preparations. In other words, after the US ban came into effect, TSMC had to consider how to transfer and release its own production capacity. Although Liu Deyin, chairman of TSMC, hopes that such a situation will not happen, the United States has a strong attitude to suppress Huawei. At present, TSMC is the world’s largest wafer company, and Huawei is TSMC’s second largest customer. 14% of TSMC’s revenue comes from Huawei’s orders, and billions of dollars in revenue come from Huawei’s orders every year.

After Huawei was suppressed and TSMC was unable to produce wafers for Huawei, it is reported that Qualcomm and Apple have increased orders to TSMC. Apple significantly added 7-nanometer orders to TSMC in the fourth quarter. That said, Apple is expected to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the U.S. crackdown on Huawei. Because Huawei is the only company that can compete with Apple in the high-end mobile phone market in China and even in the world. If Huawei’s wafer problem cannot be solved, it will gradually degenerate in the competition with Apple. It will be difficult for Apple to have competitors in the high-end market, which will undoubtedly be of great benefit to the improvement of Apple’s profits.

In fact, according to the survey, Apple has recently revised up its iPhone order guidance, and the Q2~Q4 outlook has been revised up in an all-round way. Moreover, in the Chinese market, Apple has also increased its promotion efforts. In the June 18 promotion, the sales of Apple mobile phones are also amazing. It can be seen that Apple intends to seize the market share that Huawei has given up after the short-term supply of high-end mobile phones is limited. The increase in orders to TSMC is also to meet this development demand, and then seize more market opportunities and shares in the high-end mobile phone market. Moreover, Apple’s supply chain manufacturers have raised their performance expectations, a large part of which is due to the increase in Apple’s production capacity demand. It is reported that due to the continuous replenishment of orders from the iPhone 11/SE2, the sales of iPads, AirPods, and MacBooks exceeded expectations for some suppliers.

Apple’s market value has repeatedly hit new highs, and the impact of the epidemic has dissipated. In fact, the biggest root cause is…

The benefited Apple is like a “runaway wild horse” in the capital market?

After entering June, Apple’s stock price and market value have remained at high levels, and they are still hitting new highs, and the market value has approached 1.5 trillion US dollars. Among them, Credit Suisse pointed out in the report: “Apple’s growth momentum is strengthening, which is evidence of Apple’s ability to commercialize an increasing base of nearly 1 billion iPhone users.” The target price was raised to $295 from $260, maintaining a neutral rating on the company’s stock price. The external and internal drive of Apple’s ability to acquire 1 billion users is equally important. Originally Huawei was Apple’s biggest competitor, but now because of an unfair “stuck neck”, Apple is competing with Huawei. Gradually take the initiative.

Moreover, this year Apple will launch a 5G version of the iPhone, and some early iPhone users have also reached the time window for replacement. For a time, the market believed that the emergence of a new generation of iPhone SE could allow some iPhone 6 users to enter the “channel” for switching phones, and the emergence of the 5G version of the iPhone will definitely bring more iPhone users to iterate on their mobile phones. This part of the user’s contribution to Apple’s performance and profits is undoubtedly huge. When there are not enough competitors in the market, the new iPhone can get higher premiums and profit margins. Some analysts predict, “As about 350 million people will enter the iPhone upgrade window, this heralds high demand for Apple’s next-generation devices. The 5G cycle is coming, and the big cycle will include the iPhone 12. Series.” Some analysts even raised their price target on Apple’s stock to $375 from $350.

Analysts say continued growth in Apple’s services and wearables businesses is key to the company’s bullish outlook. In fact, Apple’s biggest revenue comes from the iPhone itself, and the resulting market monopoly, and accordingly boosts its service revenue. Just imagine who would sell its services without the growth of iPhone users? Due to the support and expansion of huge hardware users, there are potential opportunities to bring more revenue to its services. According to Apple’s current performance in the capital market, it is not a dream to reach a market value of 2 trillion US dollars. Apple’s ostensible promotional activities in the Chinese market are also to a certain extent to release “inventory” and make room for 5G products in the second half of the year. If you add the market opportunities for Apple Watch, AirPods Pro and other products, Apple’s hardware base for promoting services is undoubtedly huge.

The difficulties that Huawei needs to overcome are not small, and the biggest problem is the problem of wafers

Once TSMC cannot continue to manufacture high-end wafers for Huawei, the impact on Huawei will not be profound. After all, Huawei’s flagship products still have a great influence in the high-end market, and it is the only company that can compete with Apple in the high-end market. After all, Samsung is not what it used to be. Originally, it was entirely possible for Huawei to lead 5G smartphones into a new era, but because of the hegemony of the United States, Huawei has encountered unprecedented difficulties. More importantly, in addition to TSMC, SMIC also stated that it may be difficult to provide foundry chip business for Huawei. The reason is the same as the result of the long-arm jurisdiction of the US government.

To a certain extent, the survival of Huawei mobile phones is the most critical. Although the mobile phone business is not all of Huawei, the development and improvement of Huawei’s mobile phones have been very fast in a few years, and the same is true in terms of technical reserves. But the only regret is that in terms of wafer manufacturing and other aspects, our domestic technical capabilities are still very insufficient. Although relevant departments have always encouraged the development of semiconductor and integrated chip industries, freezing three feet is not a day’s cold. The gap cannot be filled in the short term. It’s not that some entrepreneurs can catch up by investing billions of dollars. You must know that in many basic technology fields, we still have many shortcomings. After Huawei has invested a lot of financial resources, material resources and manpower in chip research and development, it is not able to productize and market its own research and development in time, so the loss is very regrettable. More importantly, in the competition with Apple, it will gradually lose high-end products. Market opportunities.

For TSMC, of ​​course, it does not want to lose Huawei, an important customer. After all, the order of billions of dollars a year is not a small number. Except for Apple, no other company can bring such high orders to TSMC. Without Huawei, TSMC’s life is not easy. Although TSMC is also introducing other alternatives, such as Qualcomm, MediaTek, etc., but in comparison, Huawei’s capabilities and needs are obviously stronger. Huawei needs support and the help of the industry chain. At the same time, it also calls for the progress of our technical reserves and research and development, especially the technical investment in wafer manufacturing and other aspects should be laid out as a long-term plan, after all, no one wants to be ” stuck neck” to survive.

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