Automotive grade chips, automotive components. Automotive grade is a specification standard for automotive Electronic components. On March 1, 2021, Chen Hong, deputy to the National People’s Congress, secretary of the party committee and chairman of SAIC Motor, aimed at independent innovation of intelligent network connection, and proposed “Suggestions on Improving the Localization Rate of Automotive-grade Chips and Enhancing the Autonomous and Controllable Ability of the Domestic Automotive Supply Chain” “, and “Suggestions on Strengthening Vehicle Data Security and Privacy Protection in the Digital Ecological Environment”; focusing on green and low-carbon transformation and development, put forward “Suggestions on Accelerating the Policy Support of the Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle Industry and Helping the Green and Low-Carbon Development of the Automobile Industry”, And “Suggestions on Improving the Policy System of the Business Model of “Separation of Vehicle and Electricity” for New Energy Vehicles.
On October 16th, Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Passenger Federation, said that with the improvement of overseas epidemics, and although the social commitment of TSMC is not very credible, I am still optimistic and firmly believe that the darkest period of automotive chip supply has passed, and the future will be Continuous improvement. But to completely eliminate the chip shortage, it is estimated that it will be after the peak sales during the Spring Festival next year. After all, the Chinese market has a large global share, and the market has strong demand in autumn and winter, so it is difficult to expect complete relief in the short term.
“In fact, the shortage of automotive chips has little to do with the global new crown epidemic, and the outside world has a deep misunderstanding of this.” said Mr. Zeng (pseudonym), an engineer from Renesas Electronics in Japan.
In fact, it was an unexpected interview. On Saturday morning, I took my son to a football club for training. Mr. Zeng, the parent of another child, took the initiative to bring up this topic after learning that I was an automotive media practitioner.
Mr. Zeng said that the impact of the epidemic on the shortage of automotive chips only accounts for 20% of the total. Under the epidemic, the shutdown of production and production is not limited to automotive chips. Why are there no product shortages in other industries? In fact, mobile phones and computers rely more on upstream semiconductor companies, but we have never I heard that mobile phones and computers were discontinued due to chip shortages.
Mr. Zeng believes that the shortage of automotive chips is the result of a combination of factors, mainly for the following four reasons:
The first is that the production reduction plans of car companies during the epidemic have directly affected the upstream semiconductor companies. After the outbreak, many car companies have lowered their production capacity plans, resulting in a drop in supply demand, and the upstream industry of silicon wafers has also adjusted their production capacity accordingly. However, the production capacity adjustment cycle of the semiconductor industry is very long, usually about half a year. Therefore, when car companies increase production capacity, semiconductor upstream companies cannot keep up with the pace of car companies, which in turn leads to chip shortages.
Auto chip shortages have been under the spotlight since last year. Affected by the shortage of chips, my country’s automobile production and sales fell for five consecutive months from May to September this year. The reporter learned from the 2021 China Automobile Supply Chain Conference held in Chongqing from the 15th to the 16th that the problem of “lack of cores” eased slightly in September, and the dawn of overcoming the “core shortage” appeared, but the supply of chips still could not meet the production demand. . The industry believes that it is necessary to strengthen the synergy between automotive-grade chips and the automotive industry chain, improve the localization rate of chips, build an integrated mesh supply chain ecology, etc., to create a safe and controllable automotive chip supply chain.
The reporter learned from an interview at the meeting that at present, the problem of insufficient production capacity of automotive chips is still severe, and multiple factors have caused market fluctuations. Many industry insiders believe that at present, many wafer foundries at home and abroad have launched production expansion plans, and it will take time to release production capacity. It is expected that the tight supply of chips may continue into the second quarter of 2022, and the shortage of chips in the automotive industry may further extend to 2023.
In response to chip shortages, government authorities are concentrating their efforts on solving them. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set up a working group for the promotion and application of automotive semiconductors to support the establishment of China’s automotive chip industry innovation strategic alliance, strengthen the precise connection between supply and demand, and promote related companies to speed up the resumption of work and production to ensure the supply of specific chips.
At the same time, with the joint efforts of OEMs and chip companies, the domestic substitution of automotive chips has also accelerated. The industry believes that because automotive-grade chips generally use more mature manufacturing processes, and domestic chip foundries can basically meet the foundry needs, the opportunity to replace domestic automotive chips has also arrived.
Jiang Jian, vice president of Bosch (China) Investment Co., Ltd., said in an interview with a reporter from the “Daily Economic News” that the shortage of chips in the automotive industry will be alleviated to some extent in 2022, but it cannot be fundamentally solved. “Next year, the chip shortage rate in the automotive industry is expected to recover from the current 50% to 20% by the end of 2020,” Jiang Jian said.
It is understood that the industry initially predicted that the impact of the chip shortage on my country’s auto industry reached its peak in May and June this year, and gradually eased from the third quarter. However, with the outbreak of the epidemic in Malaysia, the chip shortage problem has further exacerbated. “In August this year, the core shortage rate of China’s automobile (industry) reached 80%, and it has gradually improved since the end of September.” Jiang Jian said.
Of course, no matter what happens in the future, at least in the second half of this year, the problem of “lack of cores” in the automotive industry should be difficult to fundamentally improve. Judging from the current news, the optimistic point is also in the middle of 2022, and it is even expected that it will not be until 2023 that the global automotive chip supply and demand relationship will return to the level before the epidemic.
Perhaps the second half of this year is not a good time to buy a car. If it is to improve the demand for car purchases, you may wish to wait and see. However, if you just need to buy a car, there is no way. After all, the impact of the epidemic is still there, and the increase in demand for private cars cannot be ignored. If consumers in this regard are still waiting for a good price in the first half of the year, it is best to pay attention to whether the models they like are still available in the second half of the year.
Various data show that this year’s “Golden Nine Silver Ten” sales season is obviously insufficient. According to the latest auto production and sales situation in September released by the China Automobile Dealers Association on October 12, the output of my country’s automobiles in September was 2.077 million units, and the sales volume was 2.067 million units, down 17.9% and 19.6% respectively compared with the same period last year.
While the new car sales market is cold, the used car business is booming, and some dealers recycle used cars at their original prices. Recently, the reporter visited Shanghai and found that a second-hand car wholesaler told the reporter: “Nowadays, second-hand cars are selling faster. Sometimes a car can be sold within 10 minutes of arriving at the store, and now several cars are sold a day. It’s possible.”
The shrinking of car purchase discounts and the prolonged pick-up cycle in the auto consumer market are closely related to the current “core-lack” predicament of the auto industry. Xiao Zhengsan, vice president and secretary general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, said that it is unlikely that the problem of “lack of cores” will be quickly alleviated in the short term. With the impact of the high comparison base in the same period last year, the sales growth rate of the automobile market is obviously slowing down.