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Text | Special Observer Sun Li

Editor | Cui Yandong

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The epidemic is continuing, and the impact on all walks of life is also continuing. Among them, “tourism, fresh food, education, telecommuting”, etc. have been out of the circle and become a hot topic for every ordinary person. I will sort it out with you according to the timeline, and look at 10 changes and corresponding opportunities for Chinese-style elderly care after the outbreak of the epidemic.

Just needing old-age care: the crisis and opportunity of old-age care institutions and nursing staff

Here’s a look at what’s happening in nursing homes:

January 29: Among the 30 elderly people in the Poly Xinyu Kangxin Nursing Home in Wuhan, one was diagnosed with new coronary pneumonia, and three developed fever symptoms.

· February 7: The Ministry of Civil Affairs released the “Guidelines for the Prevention and Control of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Epidemic in Elderly Care Institutions (Second Edition)”.

On the one hand, “the closed environment in the hospital strengthens the contagion, and the elderly with multiple underlying diseases are more likely to aggravate their symptoms”, and comprehensive isolation must be adopted to form a “safety island”; Hua, etc.) have a self-provided central kitchen and medical configuration. Most nursing homes are distributed in the community, and their operating status is at a profit margin of 5-8%. Daily vegetable purchasing, linen cleaning, medical services, etc., all Relying on individuals in the hospital and surrounding stock service scenarios (such as community hospitals, vegetable markets, etc.).

In the past ten years, such an operating state has been regarded as a “tight balance” state under the subsidy of civil affairs. If there is no subsidy, the above-mentioned business status will be broken and will not be able to continue healthy operation. The sudden outbreak of the epidemic will force the reform of old-age care institutions that operate under the traditional form. for example:

From February 1st, Meituan ToB’s vegetable B2B fast donkey business has launched a delivery service for 6 elderly care institutions in Beijing Huichen. Based on my experience in operating the same type of business in 2017, the average gross profit margin of this business can reach 8-10%, which is very suitable for existing B2B players such as Meituan and Meicai to do it, and regard nursing homes as more A stable small B end is enough.

My judgment is that for the existing supply chain player “Yong Ai” in the pension industry, high-frequency business such as food delivery is too troublesome and the profit margin is too low, while for mature players like Taikang , from the comprehensive consideration of business coverage and standard output, it is possible to open up the existing dining capacity.

After the epidemic in 2020, there will be more elderly care institutions (stock: Beijing 600+ occupancy rate 50%+, Shanghai 800+ occupancy rate 70%+) realizing the importance of “improving efficiency and reducing costs”, B2B supply chain distribution will be It will start from “delivery food” and further expand to “linen cleaning, medical services”, etc. In fact, there are still opportunities for entrepreneurs, but you must achieve an integrated plan of “food and clothing”.

2. Nursing worker shortage: 58 is in a hurry to get home, forcing technology to drive efficiency

Every year before the Spring Festival, there will be a nationwide shortage of nursing care workers for the elderly, and due to the epidemic, family services (pan-housekeeping, including babysitting, cooking, part-time work, mother and child, pension; maintenance) are all in trouble. Take the head 58 Daojia as an example. :

January 9: According to media reports, 58 Daojia will go to the United States for an IPO, seeking a valuation of up to 2 billion US dollars.

· February 3: 58 Daojia has 2 family members of Wuhan housekeeping aunts diagnosed; during the Spring Festival itself, the business is at a low point.

· After February 10: According to the previous year after the Lantern Festival, the business volume in the first month = 120%-130% of the peak of the previous year, but the trough data of the Spring Festival will continue in 2020, and it is expected that the preparation will be normal within 3 months Case about 1/5 of the business volume.

· Follow-up 3 months: 58 Daojia’s salary of about 5,000 people (7,000+ in Daojia Group), the cost of dozens of branch offices, training bases, etc., and even 3-6 months of preparation.

According to Chen Xiaohua, the founder of 58 Daojia, the average income of 30 million practitioners in the housekeeping industry is about 5,000 yuan per month, and the aunts now have zero income, which means that the trillion-scale housekeeping market may bring about the quarter after the Spring Festival. The loss is 200-300 billion, and behind it is the employment and family life of 30 million middle-aged and elderly women in non-first-tier cities, which cannot be supported by government subsidies. For the platform, 8% of the commission is gone. According to the financial report data of 58 Daojia in July 2019, the income of 950 million+ in 2018 corresponds to a net loss of 1.4 billion+ (of which 1.1 billion is the cost of operation and promotion) (both RMB), which also has a very big impact on the IPO’s goals.

So, who is relatively less influential?

· Xiaobaijiahu and Fushoukang: The former is for hospital care orders just needed (acquisition cost = mobile Internet * 5-10%), the latter has strong personnel supply and training (export to institutions).

· Loving care: Technology drives the turnover rate (the “institution” area efficiency has increased by 4 times +), and standardizes non-standard geriatric diseases (such as dementia, etc.) (all nursing stations are “digitized + 0 store managers”).

The former has the advantage of traffic (C-side or B-side) in the just-needed scenario (elderly care), while the latter is optimized in terms of cost structure. To go further, the former is service-driven, that is, every elderly person needs one-to-one home care, and provides one-to-many service supplies to institutions; the latter is driven by technology and standardization, using as few beds and as few as possible. Service supply to achieve better nursing effects may empower more of the former.

In the United States, the former has Honor and Care, and CherryHome.AI is more like the latter’s technical empowerment. It can identify different elderly people through body proportions, clothes color and gait (rather than direct cameras involving privacy), and can also be used in specific Time and location create behavior patterns for the elderly and warn of abnormal states, recognize sounds such as coughing, dog barking, and talking, accurately monitor falling behavior and remind family members. These management efficiency and personnel empowerment can also be applied to one-to-many elderly care institutions.

Challenges encountered by “tourism”, an important category of elderly consumption

As the “hardest hit area”, the tourism industry has experienced the following things:

· From January 20th: Dream Cruises “World Dream”, “Diamond Princess”, Costa Smeralda, a total of 20,000+ passengers and crew will be affected, and all members will be screened and even quarantined.

· February 3: The International Cruise Lines Association announced that it would suspend crew travel from mainland China and prohibit any individual boarding, including passengers and crew, from or via mainland China in the past 14 days.

Early February: Airbnb’s high-quality host brands have successively launched short/long-term rental packages (destocking), without service fees, intermediary fees, and property fees; the official also launched 6-7% off weekly/monthly rent.

· February 5: Airbnb China invested 70 million yuan to set up a special fund, and made the first batch of “ten commitments” (free check-out, resource support, landlord training, etc.) to landlords and tenants.

February 5: The passenger train K3/4 (the travel route in the movie “囧 Mom”) from Beijing to Moscow via Ulaanbaatar was suspended.

Then compare the sorting data of “Tourism + Elderly” of “Elderly Care e Weekly”:

Cruise ships: 30%+ of the whole year are elderly people, and even 70%+ in off-season (non-holidays, winter and summer vacations); but repeated consumption is low.

Homestays: About 2-3% in China and about 10% in the world are elderly homestay tourists, and about 5-6% are upgraded themed accommodations.

· Surrounding tours: The peak of 1,000-1,500 people/time on a single platform for surrounding tours in first-tier cities. Pure travel agency routes need to be renovated to suit the elderly. Community stores and street cooperation are the main source of customer acquisition.

· Wellness tour: The normal 7-day tour in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai is 1,000-1,500 yuan, and the market is rapidly accepting 3,000 yuan+ of high-value single wellness experience service tours (with the sale of membership cards).

At present, the negative impact of the epidemic will continue to affect more elderly groups (non-peak season consumption) from the peak season of the Spring Festival (the whole population). Wu Zhixiang, the founder of Tongcheng, sees it this way:

· 2003: During the SARS period, tourism business decreased by 90% year-on-year, but from May to September after the epidemic ended, domestic travel increased by 113% year-on-year, and outbound travel increased by 118%.

· From February 2020: All stores and sales will be IP-based online, making full use of short videos to gain traffic and accumulate users.

· May 1, 2020: It is expected to be a flashpoint, and short-term peripheral travel will recover first; cruise ships should go to mid-to-high-end rather than low-cost buyouts; optimistic about the online travel consumption of middle-aged and elderly people born in the 1970s.

The current epidemic data has shown a benign trend of change. The unit price growth of elderly tourists by 15-20% year-on-year will not stagnate. We are also relatively optimistic about the growth of the tourism market with the May 1st holiday as an inflection point (especially the elderly group). ).

4. Kill ordinary digital cameras: mobile photography elderly community brings new business

As we talked about before, the elderly tourism market will not recover until at least the May 1st long holiday. Before the offline recovery, the online short video of B-end travel agencies will be significantly accelerated, and the consumption of C-end elderly people in relation to photography equipment will change. Let’s first look at the data of the major regions of the world over the past 12 years:

· 2008: Digital camera shipments reached a historical peak of 110 million units per year; iPhone 3G was released (second-generation iPhone) in the same period, and global smartphone shipments were about 140 million units.

· 2011: Digital cameras entered a downward curve, especially the built-in lens type, which fell by 30-50% year-on-year (until 2016); smartphones were about 450 million+ in the same period.

· 2012: Interchangeable lens digital cameras peaked at about 20 million units/year, and then dropped to 10-12 million units/year (until 2018); smartphones were about 750 million+ in the same period.

2018: “built-in lens type < interchangeable lens type" appeared for the first time, both of which were about 10 million units per year; the number of smartphones in the same period was about 1.45 billion+.

Putting the above data into the Chinese market, you will find that since 2012, the rapid popularization of smartphones represented by Xiaomi’s thousand yuan machine has brought China’s mobile Internet traffic > PC traffic for the first time. What happened after that is familiar to everyone. On the one hand, “WeChat Internet” brought a large number of 50-year-old + aborigines, which quickly verified the “tools → community” path of “Meipian, Xiaoniancake” (e-commerce was unsuccessful); On the other hand, traditional functional phones for the elderly have shrunk to the sinking and older market. Smartphones with “big screen + high pixel” have become the favorite of the elderly, and the online traffic brought by the elderly group has become a “red ocean”.

In addition, “smartphone + auxiliary equipment + training class” has also formed a new business of bringing goods. Taking an elderly photography entrepreneurial team in Shanghai as an example, the GMV is about 1.3 million per year, of which photography-related equipment (combined with travel itinerary experience) accounts for 9% and about 120,000, of which 2/3 are digital cameras, especially SLR equipment and lenses. Sales, while the other 1/3 of the increment is “smartphone + photography upgrade”.

In the public account of the photography entrepreneurial team, the number of tweets about mobile phone photographers was 3,750, and 40+ people brought goods within one week, and sales of 40,000 yuan+ were completed. From the data I have learned, the male-to-female ratio of its official account is 6:4, the conversion rate is about 1.5-2.5%, and the comprehensive gross profit rate is 25-30%.

In the same sentence, the small but beautiful old business path based on “fellowship” has always been clear, either to solve the pain (such as cancer, diabetes, etc.), or to find happiness (such as photography, etc.). Under the epidemic, more elderly people will accept forms similar to that of young people paying 99-249 yuan for the “Han Song” (Gold Award in the iPhone Photo Contest) mobile phone photography tutorial, but it is difficult to “get out of the circle” in this price range purely online. , If you are a community player, you must bring “upgrade equipment + future offline activities”, so that the elderly can pay for it.

5. SLR cameras will continue to grow: look at China with Japan 15 years ago

Next, let’s look at the details of the digital camera market in China and Japan (2019 data):

Digital [email protected]: 16.9 million total sales in 2019, of which interchangeable lenses accounted for 55% and built-in lenses accounted for 45%.

Digital [email protected]: China accounted for 9% of the total sales (about 100,000), of which the interchangeable lens accounted for 12% of the world’s 1.12 million, and the built-in lens accounted for 5% of the world’s 380,000 (Japan and Europe are the latter more popular) .

· Digital [email protected]: Japan accounts for 15% of the total sales (about 2.535 million), and SLRs are not as popular as mirrorless cameras.

· User [email protected]: In 2005, age 50+ was the highest of all age groups (accounting for 31%); from 2013, age 60+ was the highest age group (accounting for 29%); 2nd highest (25%), 50+ up to 56%.

· Female [email protected]: Interchangeable lenses from 4% (2005)→23% (2018), and built-in lens types from 24%→12%.

In Japan 15 years ago, with the increasingly serious aging and negative population growth, although the proportion of Japanese users aged 50+ buying digital cameras has increased significantly, the number of sales has declined rapidly after reaching its peak in 2012 (about 4 million units). As of 2018, about 1.7 million, the data is as follows:

· Quantitative: The turnover of travel agencies has almost zero or even negative growth year-on-year, and the proportion of Japanese digital camera sales in the world is basically stable at 10-15%.

Variable: In the context of a significant decline in global digital camera sales (from 120 million units to 20 million units), the proportion of users aged 50+ increased from 31% to 56%.

In comparison, China’s digital camera sales in 2019 are about 1.5 million units (about 3 million units in Japan in the same period), and the aging degree and consumption purchasing power at this stage are better than Japan’s. Combining the above data, we believe that China will The changes that have taken place are: the overall digital camera sales will decline (globally unified), but the sales of SLR cameras will grow faster (especially among the elderly), and the proportion of female purchases will further increase.

In the home scene, new business with online traffic

High-quality content is always the demand of users. Even if the “title party” has rapidly swept the sinking market in the past few years, the 40-year-old + middle-aged and elderly people have come to 2019. These sinking users have begun to care about the quality of the content itself. Time has come to 2020, the Spring Festival family carnival + the epidemic has extended the time at home, which has brought new user behaviors.

From the 30th to the first day of the new year, the Spring Festival Gala + Kuaishou 1 billion red envelopes, “囧 Mom” ​​+ Toutiao video App for free viewing – at the same time, there is a combination of “traditional film and television + mobile Internet video”, which is for “Aiyouteng” There will be more and more clear division of labor and cooperation mechanisms, such as dimensionality reduction, content handed over to traditional players, and mobile Internet-based channels.

At the same time, the traditional strong media are still expanding their audience groups and scenarios-take CCTV as an example, attracting more young users through Kuaishou in the family carnival scene, and attracting middle-aged and elderly users through the daily synchronous live broadcast of “News Network”. CCTV’s positioning is “download CCTV for parents, and watch TV on mobile phones” (the third highest free list during the Spring Festival, and it is still in the Top 25). Among the overall viewers watching the Spring Festival Gala, women aged 55+ are the highest proportion of the population, and their viewing methods are mainly traditional TV. The users aged 55+ who use smart TVs only account for 0.5% of the total smart TV user group (among which the first-tier cities reach 0.5%). 1.9%, second-tier and below are between 0.3-0.8%).

“Jiayou Academy” launched an online version of the NCP epidemic prevention manual for middle-aged and elderly people (focusing on health), and at the same time, “Beautiful Years” launched a free online live college course for the elderly (focusing on physical fitness and labor). This is essentially the same as the “Le Tui and Beijing Aunts have something to say” five years ago. They both use a general-purpose “physical and mental health” to attract traffic, but they are more professional and precise in content and curriculum settings.

The Spring Festival Gala is like the Skechers in the shoes of the elderly – a strong brand and a long history; “囧 Mom” ​​is like a full strength – a new style of latecomers, who do you think the online elderly colleges are like?

7. 6 years of smart home: useful > interesting, 22 million+ elderly people are playing

Since 2014, with the rapid development of e-commerce and the continuous dislocation of children and parents, the “filial piety economy” initiated by the children of the post-8090s has become an important part of e-commerce consumption. The relevant user behaviors are summarized as follows:

Sweeping robots: the main buyers, Cobos is “28-30 years old women account for 60%” (consistent with the portrait of the e-commerce platform), Roborock Technology is “mainly male < 35 years old" (consistent with the user portrait of Xiaomi ecological chain ), but both focus on "giving gifts to parents", and even operate different strategies for different social platforms such as "Moments, Xiaohongshu, Zhihu, Weibo".

Smart speakers: Shanghai middle-aged and elderly people of Xiaoya AI speakers love square dance (175 hours per person per year); 21% of users aged 40+, per capita listening time > 7160 minutes per year; 18% of users pay, per capita consumption 118 yuan per year, of which 50-year-old + users pay for content accounting for 1.71% of the total paying users (according to 600 million users, 50-year-old + paying users are about 1.85 million).

· TV + box: MAU = 22.6 million units, which is the number of parents who remotely control smart devices through Xiaomi TV and box voice.

· Voice assistant: Xiao Ai played 5.8 million hours of cross talk and storytelling for the elders (Top3 = Romance of the Three Kingdoms, Liangjian, Water Margin), 13% of children’s stories; 50-year-old + elders love Yue Yunpeng’s “Five Rings” song of”.

The above-mentioned smart technology products mainly appeared after 2014, the main price range is between 399-1999 yuan, standardized and “filial piety is valid for a long time”, and WeChat Internet has also started rapid education for the elderly since 2014, you can understand why Since 2014, the filial piety compensation business of smart technology products has grown bigger and bigger. For parents, “interesting > useful” is the core appeal: sweepers (to become lazy), smart speakers (to accompany), smart TVs (manual remote control is changed to voice, and more content sources are more optional).

The same thing is about becoming lazy, but another business that started in 2014 has not been completed, namely “self-service laundry”. The Chinese market has now accommodated at least 2 companies with an annual GMV of 900-1000 million, and the pan-housekeeping business is still developing rapidly (the epidemic is a temporary impact, and the consumption willingness and ability of the post-8090s are continuing to expand), but why? Can’t make it? The core reason is that even if self-service laundry becomes a self-service store with 1 or 0 people, its cost structure will naturally have an impact on rent and manpower, except for special household items in special seasons (such as the rainy season in the south/back to Nantian). (such as curtains, bed sheets, etc.), from the cost structure, it is impossible to win the domestic washing machine. This can develop in Hong Kong because of the small size of family homes (no room for washing machines and plenty of drying space) and a large floating population (the same happens in urban villages in Shenzhen, such as Penguin Laundry).

8. Portable pension consultant: Will it be a smart watch from Apple or Xiaomi?

You see, it is not with intelligence/self-service that you can gain the favor of consumers, especially the appeal of the elderly to “beautiful mobile phones, lazy home appliances”, at least 5+ years of technology and brand precipitation, and at least Players who have experienced 100 million yuan + sales verification on the young children’s side can only cover older users “by the way”, which is driven by strong technology and supply chain; but if you are on the content supply side, for example, content related to health and happiness To the head, implanting cooperative hardware players is also very likely to gain traffic and even investment.

In the analysis reports such as Sequoia and GFK, the institutional-end elderly care intelligent monitoring is more suitable for one-time business of leading high-end brands.

· Smart pension system: The higher the amount, the stronger the self-profitability of the institution. When the operation is stable, it will skip the third-party system and turn to self-research.

· Reason: The user’s fine-grained operation and the entire platform’s transaction flow must be in their own hands.

· Market space: either SaaS or SaaS + smart hardware, only about 2-3% of the top high-end products have the ability to pay.

In my opinion, smart watches represented by Apple Watch (which can be connected to smart homes and can monitor the heart rate of the elderly in real time) and smart watches including the Xiaomi ecological chain are used as infrastructure, and their presentation methods and data analysis are “amplified” to smart phones. It may become a “portable old-age intelligent consultant” in Chinese-style old-age care.

On the one hand, there are cases of “watch + insurance” combination in the United States, providing accurate data and treatment plans for patients and hospitals; Even more home appliances and household appliances (such as curtains, night lights, etc.) are rapidly becoming intelligent. For the elderly, only voice interaction is required, which greatly improves the convenience and reduces possible risks. This change will first appear among the existing 22 million+ elderly people who are skilled in using smart home appliances.

Mobile Internet + elderly life services, the elderly version of Meituan is accelerating 9. Online grocery shopping: the proportion of elderly users has increased to 15-20%

The first response during the epidemic is to stock up, and three meals a day are the most just needed. From January 24th on New Year’s Eve, the relevant data of the self-operated platform is sorted out as follows:

(Note: I tried the delicious food of ToC home users in 2017, and restarted the related business on February 5th, so the data cycle is short, so it is not included)

Meituan grocery shopping: The average daily order volume is 2-3 times that before the festival (@Beijing).

· Dingdong grocery shopping: 4 million+ orders in 7 days, 40,000+ new users per day, +70% of the unit price.

· Daily Premium Fresh: From New Year’s Eve to the eighth day of the Lunar New Year, the actual transaction volume increased by 350% compared with the same period last year, and the unit price increased by 33% to around 120 yuan.

· Hema Xiansheng: The supply of vegetables is 3-6 times as much as usual, and the order from the takeaway brother is +30% (to 75-80 orders/day).

Ele.me: Fresh orders increased by 282% year-on-year, of which the 50-year-old+ group increased by 400% (@Hangzhou).

· JD Daojia: From New Year’s Eve to the third day of the first lunar month, the GMV of the entire platform increased by 540% year-on-year, and vegetables increased by 400% year-on-year.

· Taoxianda: 570 supermarkets in 165 cities across the country launched “contactless delivery” (delivery addresses specified by consumers), and the sales volume of vegetables in supermarkets increased by 250-350%.

Although more “green leafy vegetables defense battles” have been launched in some “special time periods” in the family gatherings and poker groups of the elderly, for the elderly, the first choice is still large supermarkets – with Yonghui National Store King Beijing Lugu Take the store as an example, all catering (including super species) services in the store have been closed, and areas such as dried fruits and vegetables have become popular consumption scenarios.

With the development of habits brought about by the epidemic, the proportion of elderly online grocery shopping users who currently “10% in Hema nationwide, 18% in Dingdong shopping in Shanghai, and 14% in Taoxianda second-tier cities” will further increase, while other The penetration of elderly users of grocery shopping platforms will also increase (during the epidemic, there are many people looking for goods, and after the epidemic, there are many price comparisons). My estimate is that after this round of the epidemic, more elderly people will download apps or buy groceries online through small programs, and the proportion of elderly users in relatively reasonable (first- and second-tier cities) should generally be 15-20%.

10. Online senior care consultants accelerate: “community life services with illness are opportunities”

Zhang Wenhong, director of the infectious disease department of Shanghai Huashan Hospital, became a male god during the epidemic precisely because of his professional ability and responsible attitude.

Zoom in to the hospital dimension: In the 2018 National Hospital Top 100 Ranking, 16 tertiary hospitals in Shanghai were included in the list, of which Huashan Hospital ranked 9th.

· Refinement to the department dimension: Shanghai has 8 specialties ranked first in the country, of which Huashan Hospital’s “infection department, dermatology and rehabilitation medicine” accounted for 3.

Various hospitals provide online registration appointments and even medical record inquiry services. As the elderly are becoming more and more proficient in the mobile Internet (WeChat Internet), mobile registration and payment have taken 4-5 years for the elderly to gradually become Friendly (in fact, most elderly people still do not solve medical service problems through mobile Internet), so who are the players in the two states before and after going to the hospital?

· Chronic disease / non-disease: how to do daily prevention? Since 2017, “Yangshengtang, I’m a great doctor” (TV station → short video) and “Southern Health” (short video) have both followed the trend and have become the health care giants with millions and even tens of millions of attention.

· Sick: How to do community service after illness? There are only a few government-driven (such as Shanghai Tianmu West Road Street) semi-manual and semi-Internet call platforms (meal delivery, breathing, assistive devices, nursing, etc.).

The frequency of going to the hospital is generally 1-2 times/week, and the frequency of meals is 2-3 times/day. For the latter’s community-based living care services for the sick elderly, the decision-making and payment party is the children (the driving force is not to cause trouble to yourself), especially after the epidemic, both children and the elderly have advance reserves of health knowledge and resources , with stronger awareness and requirements. In addition to hoarding “masks and disinfectants”, how to select suitable services such as meal delivery, respite, assistive devices, and nursing care will be entered by Meituan with a high probability (the children’s traffic already exists, and the platform’s natural service attributes), and the government will join forces with the government. Joint operation (similar to Guangzhou Civil Affairs + Ele.me).

Thank you for your patience to see here. The crises and opportunities of 10 Chinese-style elderly care after the epidemic mean that there are new entrepreneurial opportunities in “institutions + nursing staff, tourism + surrounding areas, home scenarios + traffic, mobile Internet + life services”. Among them, there are not only the empowerment and upgrading of the supply chain of traditional players, but also the incremental services that entrepreneurs cut into the stock ecology. China’s 400 million 50-year-olds and the strong demand for high-quality supply will accelerate the release.